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2023 Global outlook. A new investment playbook

Research
24 January 2023

Blackrock specialists in their annual review of key trends in the financial markets are looking for answers to the questions that 2022 has asked.

Analysts of the Roscongress Foundation have identified the main theses of this study, accompanying each of them with a relevant piece of video broadcasts of panel discussions held as part of the business programs of key events held by the Foundation.

The world’s largest, the US economy, has two options in the near future: bad and very bad.

The key feature of the current position is the dictate of the supply. The driving force is now production costs. Central bank discount rates are not a tool for dealing with production constraints; they can only influence the demand in their economy. This leads to a cruel compromise. Either return inflation to the 2% target, reducing demand to a level that the economy can comfortably produce (in other words, shrinking GDP), or living with high inflation. So far, everyone is leaning towards the first option.

Video: https://roscongress.org/sessions/spief-transformatsiya-kooperatsionnykh-tsepochek-novye-vozmozhnosti-i-perspektivy/search/#00:44:35.455

Investment strategies that have shown good results in the past no longer guarantee either the required level of return or the required level of risk.

According to Blackrock experts, the wrong choice of investment portfolio structure can now cost 4 times more than in past decades. Achieving the same level of return will require more volatility and higher risk than before. But at the same time, government bonds with a short maturity still seem to be one of the most stable and promising market financial instruments.

Video: https://roscongress.org/sessions/splf-2022-finansovyy-rynok-rossii-chto-za-gorizontom-sanktsiy-dialog-mezhdu-regulyatorom-i-reguliruemym/search/#00:46:18.879

A new historical stage has arrived.

We have entered a new world order. We are seeing the most dangerous situation in the world since the Second World War — a complete break with the post-Cold War era. Geopolitical cooperation and globalization are being replaced by a fragmented world with competing blocs. This is an objective process associated with the need to ensure economic efficiency. Moving to local value chains can be more costly for businesses, and we may see new mismatches in supply and demand as resources are reallocated further.

Video: https://roscongress.org/sessions/eef-2022-bolshoe-evraziyskoe-partnerstvo-puti-ekonomicheskogo-razvitiya/search/#00:28:46.464

We also invite you to familiarize yourself with other materials posted in special sections of the Roscongress Information and Analytical System Globalization/regionalization, Investment Management and Financial market dedicated to financial markets.

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