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Monitoring of Russia’s Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development

Research
8 June 2020
Мониторинг экономической ситуации в России. Тенденции и вызовы социально-экономического развития
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Release date
04/29/2020
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This publication was prepared by researchers from Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (Gaidar Institute) and the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA). It contains a collection of articles about the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on various spheres, including economy and finance. The central focus is on economic stabilization efforts and state support for businesses in the current conditions.

The Roscongress Foundation presents the salient points of the publication accompanied by fragments of broadcasts of relevant panel discussions from the business programme of international events held by the Roscongress Foundation.

The coronavirus pandemic isn’t over yet.

Analysts observe that although the USA and certain European countries currently remain the epicenters of the pandemic, the number of coronavirus cases in Russia has been growing exponentially since early March.

The articles titled «Monitoring the situation with the spread of the coronavirus infection (COVID-19), mitigation measures, and challenges» and «Real-time monitoring of socio-economic mitigation measures targeting COVID-19» scrutinize the current situation with the pandemic in Russia and globally, its repercussions, measures taken by countries to counter the spread of the pandemic, and the effectiveness of these measures.

The authors emphasize the profound impact of the pandemic. For example, the rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has revised downwards its outlook for the global economy, particularly in view of the continuing lockdowns in a range of countries.

Video: https://roscongress.org/sessions/eef-2019-ugrozy-biologicheskoy-bezopasnosti-v-atr-novye-riski-i-vozmozhnosti/search/#00:30:59.584

Coronavirus has had an adverse effect on a range of spheres, including the economy.

A number of articles study the effect of the pandemic on individual sectors of the economy. In particular, analysts note that the most affected sectors are air transportation («Measures of state support for air transportation and the aircraft industry in Russia and globally») and tourism («Measures of state support for the tourism industry amid the COVID-19 crisis»).

Some of the articles raise the issue of distance (online) education during the pandemic. In the absence of a well-developed comprehensive system of methods and technologies, the issue assumes global importance («On measures taken in education systems globally in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and on implemented educational technologies»).

Another interesting topic is how the pandemic is presented in media and in speeches of political leaders. This issue is studied in such works as «Cross-cultural monitoring of infodemic and pandemic. Quarantine: Safe and unsafe» and «Cross-cultural monitoring of infodemic and pandemic. Looking into the future: The world after the coronavirus».

Video: https://roscongress.org/sessions/spief-2019-tsifrovoy-transport-i-logistika-liderstvo-rossii-v-transportnoy-integratsii-evropy-i-azii/search/#00:44:27.263

Social and economic support measures are of particular importance in the current situation.

Analysts note that the COVID-19 pandemic and the socio-economic crisis it triggered have already caused and will continue to cause a range of changes in the social sphere, for example in urban mobility («Correlation between the rise in COVID-19 incidence and urban mobility: Examples of New York, Stockholm, and Moscow») and migration («Long-term international migration to Russia in 2020-2021: Factors related to quarantines and economic recession»). In the economy, analysts observe such changes as inflation («Inflationary processes in the Russian Federation in the wake of the crisis»), changes in the balance of payments («Russia’s balance of payments in Q1 2020»), financial market crisis («Snapshot review of financial markets»), SME crisis («Development trends of small and medium-sized enterprises amid pandemic-induced crisis»), etc.

The authors of the articles emphasize the necessity of social and economic support. They note that, compared to large companies, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more susceptible to pandemic-related risks. To support the SME sector, the state must implement measures of financial (subsidies, tax relief, etc.) and non-financial support.

The article titled «Social payments and food aid programs amid the coronavirus pandemic: International experience» examines foreign countries’ experience with introducing new programs of social payments and food aid for certain social groups, and with adapting existing programs as a response to pandemic-related economic problems.

Thus, the authors conclude, in the current situation, state support is necessary for businesses and the population alike.

Video: https://roscongress.org/sessions/kom-rastet-sotsialnoe-neravenstvo-kak-globalnaya-problema-i-rol-biznesa-v-ee-reshenii/search/#00:04:09.600

For more information about possible ways to stabilize the economy during the pandemic, please see the StayHomeEconomy special section of the Roscongress information and analytical system, and the Monetary policy and Financial market sections about financial and macroeconomic indicators.

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