Key conclusions
Europe will not be able to turn away entirely from Russian energy resources in the next decade
“The markets will not be able to manage without Russian energy resources. That’s because the markets are finely balanced, and there is no superfluous capacity, either in terms of oil or gas. Yes, there may be some redistribution as far as supply chains and suppliers are concerned. But that will not be instantaneous. It is a long process, and is a question of competition, [which – ed.] will lead to an increase in prices. And there is the fact that the infrastructure is not currently in place to address these matters quickly. Enormous investment needs to be made in order to build [infrastructure – ed.],” Alexander Novak, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation.
“No single country, or a single group of countries, is able to completely replace Russian exports to the European Union. <...> The amounts offered by the Russian Federation simply cannot be compared with other countries. So, volumes play the decisive role here. Russia has some restrictions regarding pipeline supplies, but these are being supplemented by LNG options,” H.E. Mohamed Hamel, Secretary General, Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
“If our oil disappears, it will need to be replaced. Oil will be supplied from other places located further away, such as Canada, Guyana, and Brazil. There will be other logistics-related costs. <...> Whereas at the start of the year three quarters of our oil went to Europe, now more than 50% of it goes to the Asian market. <...> We need to work on restructuring our export infrastructure. That does not only mean oil pipelines, but reservoirs and ports, too. In addition, there will need to be a fleet of tankers, as well as mechanisms and tools to facilitate trade, and funding for trading operations,” Alexander Dyukov, Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Gazprom Neft.
“Theoretically, one could set up a new fuel assembly, conduct R&D, and do all the testing in around 10 years. But that would involve a huge amount of money and not very much sense,” Alexey Likhachev, Director General, ROSATOM State Atomic Energy Corporation.
“In attempting to replace such an immense amount [of energy resources – ed.], EU countries are at risk of an energy crisis. This fact needs to be voiced, because nobody is talking about it. If this trend continues, the outlook will be bleak – we’re talking about jobs being lost, and factories being closed,” Leonid Mikhelson, Chairman of the Management Board, Member of the Board of Directors, NOVATEK.
There is not about to be a global shift away from hydrocarbons as the main source of energy
“In 1992, hydrocarbons accounted for 81% of the global energy mix. Thirty years later, this figure is 80%. So, we can see that hydrocarbons are extremely important for the global economy, and extremely important when it comes to meeting people’s needs,” H.E. Mohamed Hamel, Secretary General, Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
“There is no catch-all alternative [to hydrocarbons – ed.] Hydrocarbons, oil, and gas will dominate the global energy mix for decades to come,” Alexander Dyukov, Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Gazprom Neft.
PROBLEMS
Alternative energy is not yet efficient, and attempts to replace hydrocarbons with them could lead to significant economic damage
“Without a substantial traditional energy sector, renewable energy systems cannot guarantee a reliable electricity supply – we are 100% sure of this. The transition to solar and wind systems, for example, requires other sectors to make large capital investments. And for renewables to be introduced on a large scale, grids will need to be constructed at not just an intense rate, but perhaps even at an exponential level,” Andrey Ryumin, General Director, Chairman of the Management Board, Rosseti.
“Where is the intellectual giant who can set out this objective [of moving away from hydrocarbons – ed.] properly? I mean someone who doesn’t just spout political slogans, but outlines how to go about it from a technological and economically viable point of view, and within a certain timeframe? This is an enormous, and incredibly difficult issue,” Alexey Likhachev, Director General, ROSATOM State Atomic Energy Corporation.
The ever-increasing global demand for energy may have a negative effect on affordability
“We are living in a time of great uncertainty. At the same time, global energy consumption is set to rise by 30% over the next 10–15 years. The main challenge is working out how to ensure an affordable supply to meet such demand. I do hope that we won’t be talking at next year’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum about a situation in which demand needs to be met amid a raft of energy crises on various local markets,” Alexander Novak, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation.
“As well as the climate, there are issues related to increased global energy consumption. This is undoubtedly happening due to population growth, but also due to technological progress, and new innovations. The task facing us is to make the grid more reliable, because more modern equipment will be more sensitive,” Andrey Ryumin, General Director, Chairman of the Management Board, Rosseti.
“We see demand for electricity growing by 29%. This is particularly the case regarding natural gas. Its share in the global energy mix is growing – from 23% originally to 27% by 2050,” H.E. Mohamed Hamel, Secretary General, Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
SOLUTIONS
The LNG market needs to become a new area of growth for the Russian energy sector
“There is no localization – we build our own technology and equipment to produce LNG. We have a huge resource base. America will probably be this year’s biggest producer, with 15 million added, and 85–90 already being attained. Qatar accounts for 20%, and Australia 20%. We must also occupy 20% of the market – we have all the potential to do so,” Leonid Mikhelson, Chairman of the Management Board, Member of the Board of Directors, NOVATEK.
Production of lithium needs to begin in Russia
“We have specific plans in place as far as this [lithium production – ed.] is concerned. I’m not going to go into it before it’s time, though. But in terms of the general availability of lithium in Russia, I can say that we have a number of deposits. The Kovykta [gas condensate – ed.] field [in Irkutsk Region – ed.] has been developed, and has large reserves of a lithium-containing solution. Gazprom is already working on this in cooperation with some other companies. This is an area of focus, and a solution is in place,” Alexander Novak, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation.
For more information, visit the Roscongress Foundation’s Information and Analytical System at roscongress.org/en
